Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 6.748031e-05 0.000081 0.000095 0.000111 0.000129 0.000149 0.000172
2025-03-23 5.097949e-05 0.000068 0.000087 0.000111 0.000139 0.000171 0.000209
2025-03-30 4.124000e-05 0.000059 0.000082 0.000110 0.000145 0.000185 0.000235
2025-04-06 3.270786e-05 0.000051 0.000075 0.000107 0.000147 0.000195 0.000257
2025-04-13 2.696248e-05 0.000046 0.000071 0.000105 0.000150 0.000206 0.000278
2025-04-20 2.094501e-05 0.000039 0.000064 0.000099 0.000148 0.000209 0.000290
2025-04-27 1.767266e-05 0.000035 0.000061 0.000099 0.000152 0.000220 0.000311
2025-05-04 1.518672e-05 0.000032 0.000059 0.000100 0.000157 0.000232 0.000334
2025-05-11 1.339338e-05 0.000031 0.000058 0.000101 0.000163 0.000246 0.000359
2025-05-18 1.177182e-05 0.000029 0.000057 0.000103 0.000169 0.000259 0.000384
2025-05-25 9.375189e-06 0.000025 0.000053 0.000099 0.000168 0.000262 0.000395
2025-06-01 7.366970e-06 0.000022 0.000049 0.000095 0.000165 0.000264 0.000404
2025-06-08 5.816657e-06 0.000020 0.000046 0.000094 0.000169 0.000275 0.000429
2025-06-15 4.636250e-06 0.000018 0.000044 0.000094 0.000174 0.000288 0.000457
2025-06-22 3.579702e-06 0.000016 0.000042 0.000093 0.000176 0.000299 0.000480
2025-06-29 2.592565e-06 0.000013 0.000039 0.000090 0.000176 0.000305 0.000498
2025-07-06 1.922735e-06 0.000012 0.000037 0.000089 0.000178 0.000314 0.000520
2025-07-13 1.218552e-06 0.000010 0.000033 0.000084 0.000174 0.000313 0.000528
2025-07-20 8.940916e-07 0.000009 0.000032 0.000083 0.000177 0.000324 0.000552
2025-07-27 6.695763e-07 0.000008 0.000031 0.000084 0.000182 0.000337 0.000580
2025-08-03 5.217572e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000085 0.000189 0.000353 0.000612
2025-08-10 3.951622e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000087 0.000194 0.000368 0.000643
2025-08-17 2.197954e-07 0.000006 0.000027 0.000083 0.000192 0.000369 0.000655